Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
