A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
